Bitcoin has bounced back above $58,000, a level it hadn’t touched since the price started sliding more than 10% on September 2. The negative mood from earlier on Wednesday, fueled by U.S. inflation data and reactions to the Trump-Harris debate, has quickly faded, setting a more positive tone for Bitcoin’s price action towards the end of the day on Wednesday. At the time of writing Bitcoin is priced at $58,190 per coin, according to CoinMarketCap data.
Short-Term Bullish, Long-Term Uncertain
Popular analyst Willy Woo shared his thoughts on Twitter, highlighting mixed signals for Bitcoin’s future. He sees a short-term bullish swing lasting one to three weeks but is more cautious about the medium and long-term outlook. Woo notes that while demand and supply have been bearish since the April halving, there are hints of a reversal pattern forming over the last four weeks. However, he emphasizes that it’s still too early to confirm.
“Bitcoin specific signals: SHORT TERM: timing signal -> 1-3 wks of bullish swing MEDIUM TERM: demand/supply bearish since the Apr halving, but some hopium a reversal pattern may have started in the last 4 weeks (still unconfirmed) -> will take more time before ATHs can break MACRO: risk signal printing lower lows -> BTC is not in a bear market, it’s just waiting in a re-accumulation pattern,” Woo tweeted.
Woo also points out potential risks from traditional finance, like falling bond rates, which he sees as a possible warning sign of broader market instability. He likens the current scenario to past events such as the 2020 COVID crash and the 2008 financial crisis, suggesting that Bitcoin could face a downturn before a longer-term liquidity-fueled rally takes hold.
#Bitcoin specific signals:
SHORT TERM: timing signal -> 1-3 wks of bullish swing
MEDIUM TERM: demand/supply bearish since the Apr halving, but some hopium a reversal pattern may have started in the last 4 weeks (still unconfirmed) -> will take more time before ATHs can break…
— Willy Woo (@woonomic) September 12, 2024
Potential Bullish Breakout by September’s Close
Meanwhile, crypto strategist Jason Pizzino shared his insights in a new video with his 333,000 YouTube subscribers, suggesting that Bitcoin could start showing a bullish pattern on the monthly chart by the end of September. Pizzino looks back at previous cycle lows, noting the number of months it took before Bitcoin started parabolic rallies. He points out that the key months were 20, 21, and 19 when Bitcoin’s monthly close broke above prior resistance levels.
“If September happens to hold up higher than August, well that makes it 22 months,” Pizzino says. “And if September either breaks out to get to some higher monthly closing prices, say above $66,000-$67,000, that could then easily put it in the camp of the move beginning.”
Pizzino explains that the critical point to watch would be a close around $68,000, which would likely signal the start of a new upward move. If it doesn’t happen in September, he expects the breakout could still come in October, potentially marking one of the longest periods before a breakout in Bitcoin’s history.
Final Move Could Confirm Parabolic Rally
According to Pizzino, the initial move is often followed by a “final” push that confirms the breakout and indicates that a parabolic rally is on the horizon. He compares the current timeline to past cycles, pointing out that we’re in month 22, and the breakout could stretch into early 2024. (A parabolic rally towards a price of even $150,000 was also predicted yesterday by veteran trader Peter Brandt, who sees a massive cup-and-handle pattern emerging.)
“You can see these previous ones. I’ve got it here at month 20, month 21, month 19, and then the second final move here where you basically don’t see prices come back [until the peak]: month 22, month 27 and month 28,” Pizzino explains.
If Bitcoin follows the same path, he suggests the breakout could extend into February or March 2024, potentially pushing prices well above previous highs. This sets up an exciting window for Bitcoin watchers as we move closer to the year-end.
At the start of September, when Bitcoin fell below $58,000, Rekt Capital had already predicted a breakout after a period of re-accumulation. He told his followers that Bitcoin was likely to break out of its re-accumulation range in late September 2024.
History suggests that Bitcoin tends to breakout 150-160 days after the Halving
That would mean Bitcoin would breakout from its ReAccumulation Range in late September 2024
That being said, Average Historical Monthly Returns for September are -4.48%, with highest ever… pic.twitter.com/EnEsc8M8O8
— Rekt Capital (@rektcapital) August 31, 2024
As always, keep an eye on HowToBuyBitcoin.org for daily updates on Bitcoin’s price movements and insights from top analysts.