September is known for being a challenging month in the financial world. It’s not just the stock market that struggles; Bitcoin also tends to have a rough time. Historically, September is Bitcoin’s weakest month. But can it defy the odds this year? Let’s look at what the data tells us.
What Do the Numbers Show?
Data from CoinGlass reveals that September often brings negative returns for Bitcoin. On average, Bitcoin’s return in September is -4.78%, with a median return of -5.58%. Out of all months, only June and September have negative average returns, with June being slightly better at -0.35%.
When we look at median returns, August and December also show up as negative months, with -7.90% and -3.59%, respectively. Most months usually bring positive returns for Bitcoin, making the “September Effect” stand out even more.
September and Bitcoin: A Tough Match
Looking back over the past eleven years since 2013, Bitcoin has only posted positive returns in September three times. In 2015, Bitcoin rose by 2.35%, and in 2016, it climbed 6.04%. More recently, in 2023, Bitcoin saw a 3.91% increase in September.
Right now, Bitcoin’s price sits around $58,154 after a 8.95% drop in the past week. This suggests the downward trend could continue through September. However, October, often called “Uptober,” might offer a chance for the market to recover.
What to Watch This September
As we go through September, it’s essential to keep an eye on market conditions and any upcoming data that might affect Bitcoin. The “September Effect” isn’t a guarantee of losses, but it’s a pattern worth noting. If you’re considering making a move, weigh the risks and the potential for a rebound in October. Markets can shift quickly, and Bitcoin has a history of surprising us when we least expect it.
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