Bitcoin’s price has dipped below $58,000, leaving many wondering what comes next. According to Credible Crypto, who shares his insights with over 400,000 followers on X, there’s a good chance we could see more downside in the short term in the first weeks of September, a month that historically is regarded a bad month for Bitcoin. Nevertheless don’t lose your hopes just yet—he also sees potential for a big rally in the near future, and so does another analyst!
Is Bitcoin Approaching a Bottom?
Credible Crypto believes that Bitcoin might still be on its way to an “ultimate bottom” below $55,000. He says, “While we can technically still fall towards my ultimate target of $53,000-$54,000, I think it makes sense to see some relief (read: increases) here.” it means that we could be seeing a brief bounce before heading lower.
He also notes that many long positions have been flushed out on the way down, but the conviction of short traders hasn’t been fully tested. He’s watching two possible scenarios: either Bitcoin breaks above recent highs or falls short before dipping to the $53,000-$54,000 range. “I’m watching these two scenarios before we hit the ultimate bottom of $53,000-$54,000 (and hopefully set a higher macro low),” Credible Crypto explains.
https://twitter.com/CredibleCrypto/status/1829570429033337338
His chart suggests that Bitcoin might see a small bounce soon, but both scenarios point towards a dip to the $53,000-$54,000 zone. However, this might just set the stage for something bigger.
Is a Big Rally Around the Corner?
Despite the current bearish outlook, Credible Crypto remains optimistic about a potential rally. At the end of August, he shared a chart predicting a parabolic rise that could push Bitcoin well above $100,000. He expects this rally to start toward the end of September, beginning from relatively low levels but maintaining a pattern of higher lows.
However, his forecast depends on Bitcoin holding above the lows from the August 5 crash. If prices fall below those levels, it could invalidate his theory. Currently, Bitcoin is trading around $57,400, down for almost 10% in the last 7 days, highlighting the ongoing uncertainty. But if Credible Crypto’s predictions play out, we could be heading for an interesting setup.
Halving Cycles Point to September Breakout
Credible Crypto isn’t the only analyst anticipating a late September breakout. Rekt Capital, another well-followed analyst with nearly 497,000 followers on X, suggests that Bitcoin’s price moves are influenced by cycles related to the Bitcoin halving—when miners’ rewards are cut in half.
According to Rekt Capital, past cycles show that Bitcoin tends to consolidate for about five months mid-cycle before beginning its next leg up. His chart indicates that historically, Bitcoin often breaks out 150-160 days after the halving, suggesting that the next breakout could happen around late September 2024.
“History suggests that Bitcoin tends to break out 150-160 days after the Halving. That would mean Bitcoin would break out from its re-accumulation range in late September 2024,” Rekt Capital notes.
However, he also points out that average historical returns for September are typically negative, with an average of -4.48%, while the highest upside in September has been only +6%. On the other hand, October has historically been much stronger, with average monthly returns of +22.9%.
“I wouldn’t be surprised if Bitcoin consolidates just a little bit more beyond late September to achieve an October breakout. After all, October has always historically been a strong month,” Rekt Capital says.
History suggests that Bitcoin tends to breakout 150-160 days after the Halving
That would mean Bitcoin would breakout from its ReAccumulation Range in late September 2024
That being said, Average Historical Monthly Returns for September are -4.48%, with highest ever… pic.twitter.com/EnEsc8M8O8
— Rekt Capital (@rektcapital) August 31, 2024
Timing the Bull Market Peak
Rekt Capital also speculated on when the bull market peak could occur for this cycle. He suggests that the peak might happen around September 2025, based on historical data from previous cycles.
“If you think about how long it takes for Bitcoin to rally to new all-time highs and to that ultimate bull market peak after the halving, it takes 546 days or 518 days,” Rekt Capital explains. He points to past cycles, noting that in 2020-2021, it took 546 days after the halving to reach the bull market peak, and in 2016-2017, it took 518 days.
This data suggests that the path to a new bull market peak could take anywhere from 518 to 546 days after the halving, highlighting that patience is key for those waiting for the next big run.
What Does This Mean for You?
Both Credible Crypto and Rekt Capital offer valuable insights into Bitcoin’s current price action and what could happen next. If you’re holding Bitcoin or considering buying in, it’s essential to stay informed and keep an eye on key levels like the $53,000-$54,000 range. While short-term volatility might feel unsettling, these analysts suggest that the bigger picture could still be bullish.
As always, it’s important to weigh these insights against other market factors and to approach the market with a balanced perspective. Keep checking HowToBuyBitcoin.org for the latest updates and information.