A popular crypto investor believes Bitcoin’s old four-year cycle may no longer be reliable. Pseudonymous Bitcoin analyst Jack Sparrow, who has over 250,000 followers on X, argues that many market participants are clinging too tightly to past price patterns driven by the halving cycle.
Bitcoin’s Maturation Phase
According to Sparrow, Bitcoin is entering a new phase, evolving beyond its early cyclical behavior. He suggests Bitcoin started maturing as an asset as early as 2018, when the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) introduced Bitcoin futures. This trend continued with the arrival of Bitcoin ETFs (exchange-traded funds).
Sparrow’s analysis, based on Gann cycles, indicates that the old behavioral cycle ended in April this year. This was shortly after ETFs launched and aligned with the unwinding of the large Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) arbitrage.
https://twitter.com/BTC_JackSparrow/status/1829537179690758448
New Cycle, New Rules
As Bitcoin matures, Sparrow believes it’s only natural that the price action will differ significantly from previous cycles. He sees the next cycle focusing on Bitcoin’s viability as a technology, a store of value, and its integration into the real world beyond pure speculation. The battle will be to make Bitcoin the default Treasury asset, a strategy that until this day only El Salvador has openly implemented.
The analyst also predicts that Bitcoin will begin to behave more like stocks. Large investors will likely create market shakeouts to accumulate cheap Bitcoin, much like they do with equities. Sparrow warns, “New cycles start with accumulation. Markets hunt for liquidity to accumulate. Nobody is your friend—they want your coin.”
A Crucial September for Bitcoin
Sparrow points to September as a key month that could set the tone for Bitcoin’s price action in the coming months. He believes this month will either confirm the uptrend or signal a break, setting the main trend into March to June next year. The seasonality, cycles, and overall market conditions could swing either bullish or bearish.
For now, Sparrow emphasizes that Bitcoin needs to reclaim and hold $61,000 to continue its upward momentum. Currently, Bitcoin is trading at $58,191, down just over 1.6% on the day. This key level will be a battleground as Bitcoin takes its next steps.
Follow us at HowToBuyBitcoin.org for more insights and updates on Bitcoin.