Although Bitcoin is currently trading under the $100K mark and well below its all-time high of over $108K, a new report from CryptoQuant suggests the cryptocurrency could reach between $145,000 and $249,000 in 2025. These projections are based on factors like institutional investments, historical market cycles, and evolving economic policies.
Institutional Investors On Top
Institutional investors—think big players like investment funds and ETFs—are becoming a key part of Bitcoin’s market. Wallets holding between 100 and 1,000 Bitcoin, which often represent institutions, added $127 billion worth of Bitcoin in 2024. That growth signals growing confidence in Bitcoin’s potential as a long-term store of value.
Why does this matter? Institutions have deep pockets. When they allocate large amounts of money into Bitcoin, it can push prices higher. Plus, their involvement often reassures others that Bitcoin is becoming more widely accepted as a legitimate asset.
The Role of Market Cycles
Bitcoin tends to follow a four-year cycle tied to its halving events. Halving is when the reward miners get for processing Bitcoin transactions gets cut in half. This reduces the rate at which new Bitcoin enters circulation, creating scarcity. Historically, the final year of these cycles has been when Bitcoin’s price rises the most. (There are some that believe that the halving-cycle may no longer be reliable)
For example:
- Between 2015 and 2018, $86 billion flowed into Bitcoin.
- From 2019 to 2021, this figure jumped to $384 billion.
- From 2022 to early 2025, $440 billion has already entered the market.
CryptoQuant estimates that another $520 billion could flow into Bitcoin by the end of 2025 if trends remain consistent.
Why 2025 Could Be a Big Year
Several factors suggest 2025 might be favorable for Bitcoin:
- Friendly Policies – The incoming U.S. administration is showing signs of supporting cryptocurrencies. Pro-crypto regulators could make it easier for institutions to invest in Bitcoin.
- Interest Rate Cuts – If the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates, as some expect, it could create a favorable environment for riskier assets like Bitcoin. Lower rates often push investors to look for higher returns in assets outside traditional savings accounts or bonds.
Another factor to watch is the MVRV ratio, which measures whether Bitcoin is overvalued or undervalued. Currently, this ratio sits at 2.3, well below the level that indicates overheating (around 3.8-4.0). That suggests there’s room for the price to grow.
Risks to the Outlook
While the potential for growth is exciting, there are risks to consider. Delayed interest rate cuts, if inflation remains high, could slow Bitcoin’s momentum. Another risk comes from retail investors, or everyday buyers, who haven’t been as active recently. If retail enthusiasm doesn’t pick up, it could lead to a disconnect between institutional confidence and broader market sentiment.
Lastly, a “sell-the-news” effect might happen after President Trump takes office. Often, big price increases are followed by short-term profit-taking, leading to temporary dips.
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