Satoshi Nakamoto, the elusive creator of Bitcoin, has long held the position as the largest Bitcoin holder, with an estimated 1.1 million BTC. However, Eric Balchunas, a senior ETF analyst at Bloomberg, suggests that this could change by the end of this year.
Balchunas predicts that U.S.-based Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) are on track to surpass Satoshi’s holdings. Together, these ETFs already hold 909,000 BTC, and BlackRock’s IBIT fund alone accounts for 347,767 of those coins. If things continue at this pace, BlackRock could become the largest Bitcoin holder by late next year, and it might stay that way for a long time, he says.
Didn’t realize US ETFs are on track to pass Satoshi in bitcoin held in October. BlackRock alone is already #3 and on pace to be #1 late next year, and will likely stay there for a very long time Ht @EdmondsonShaun pic.twitter.com/QGsO00zrxp
— Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) August 12, 2024
The Mystery Around Satoshi Nakamoto and his Bitcoin
Satoshi Nakamoto’s Bitcoin stash has always been a topic of fascination and concern. With such a large portion of Bitcoin’s total supply, there’s often worry about what would happen if those coins were ever sold off. The market could be seriously impacted if a huge amount of Bitcoin suddenly became available.
However, there’s still a lot we don’t know about Satoshi’s holdings. Some research suggests that Satoshi might own fewer Bitcoins than the often-cited 1.1 million—possibly around 700,000 coins. To add to the mystery, these coins haven’t been moved or touched in over ten years. This has since led to speculation that they might be lost forever, especially if Satoshi has passed away without passing on the private keys needed to access the coins.
While it’s unlikely that we’ll see these coins sold off in large amounts, there’s always a chance that someone could have a plan in place to sell them if something happens—what some call a “dead man’s switch.” If that day ever comes, the market could see some serious fluctuations.
On the other hand, if these coins are indeed lost forever, the potential risk to affect the market stability of Bitcoin might therefore be much lower than we think. In that case, Satoshi and his lost fortune will never impact Bitcoin’s monetary integrity directly, other than now knowing for sure if they are really lost.
We’ll be keeping a close watch on how these ETFs grow and whether they’ll surpass Satoshi’s legendary holdings. It’s an interesting new perspective on Bitcoin and its holders to see these Bitcoin ETFs move up the ranks and become whales.
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