Bitcoin has been consolidating around $97,000 after reaching an all-time high of $109,000 in January. Some people are wondering if a correction is coming, but according to our friends at CryptoQuant, the halving cycle still has more to play out.
Understanding Bitcoin’s Halving Cycles
Halving is an event that happens roughly every four years when the number of new bitcoins entering circulation gets cut in half. This process reduces supply over time and has historically influenced price trends. Looking at the previous halving in 2020, bitcoin’s price climbed 686% between May 11, 2020, and November 8, 2021. Since the most recent halving on April 20, 2024, bitcoin has risen 63% so far.
Some analysts believe price growth may be slowing over time due to diminishing returns. However, the current 63% increase suggests that the full effect of the halving has not played out yet. That leaves the door open for further upside in this cycle.
What MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin Purchases Tell Us
MicroStrategy (MSTR), recently rebranded to ‘Strategy‘, has been aggressively adding bitcoin to its balance sheet. In early 2025, the company bought another 7,633 bitcoins, bringing its total holdings to 478,740. These purchases often serve as a gauge for institutional interest in bitcoin.
Strategy tends to buy during bullish phases, meaning continued purchases could signal further price increases. If the company slows down or stops buying, it might suggest reduced market confidence.
What to Expect Next
Looking ahead, bitcoin’s price may experience some profit taking in May, leading to a quiet summer before picking up again in the final quarter of the year. Historically, Q4 has been a strong period for bitcoin, with positive price action in 2013, 2016, 2017, 2020, 2021, 2023, and 2024.
A larger correction could still happen, but it may take months or even a year to play out. Broader economic events, like peace talks in Ukraine, could also influence bitcoin’s price by improving investor sentiment.
For now, bitcoin is still in its post-halving phase, and if history is any guide, there could still be more room for growth. Bitcoin is trading at $95,700 as per CoinMarketCap data.
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