Bitcoin wrapped up a challenging week, trading just under $55,000 on Sunday, reflecting a 4.2% loss over the past seven days. While it might seem discouraging, it’s essential to step back and consider the bigger picture, especially when looking at Bitcoin’s performance in previous halving years. Popular crypto analyst Rekt Capital took to social media platform X to remind us why this downturn isn’t as alarming as it may feel.
He pointed out, “Bitcoin is down -8% for the month of September. Nothing out of the ordinary, especially if you look at the -5% to -7% September downside seen in 2021, 2020, 2018, or 2017.” These dips have been part of Bitcoin’s history, particularly during September, which has often been a weaker month for the cryptocurrency. So, if you’ve been feeling the pressure lately, it’s not just you; Bitcoin has seen similar patterns before.
Bitcoin is down -8% for the month of September
Nothing out of the ordinary
Especially if you look at the -5% to -7% September downside seen in 2021, 2020, 2018 or 2017$BTC #Crypto #Bitcoin pic.twitter.com/faDzgmeJs5
— Rekt Capital (@rektcapital) September 8, 2024
But there’s a silver lining here. Rekt Capital highlighted that the last quarter of those same years often turned positive. He noted, “Bitcoin is in a Halving year, so it makes most sense to compare 2024 with previous Halving years. In the previous Halving years (2016 & 2020), Bitcoin enjoyed three straight months of upside across October, November, and December.” This historical trend suggests we could see some upward momentum as we move towards the end of the year.
However, Rekt Capital also cautioned that we might not yet be seeing the start of a reversal. He explained that “sellers’ exhaustion levels are not yet reached. For Bitcoin to kickstart a price reversal,” he says, “Bitcoin’s sell-side volume needs to be large enough to enter this orange box to reach Seller Exhaustion levels and, in turn, trigger a price reversal to the upside. At the moment, however, sell-side volume hasn’t yet reached Seller Exhaustion levels seen at previous price reversals.”
Most of the time throughout 2024 (with perhaps 2 exceptions)…
Bitcoin's sell-side volume needed to be large enough to enter this orange box to reach Seller Exhaustion levels and in turn kickstart a price reversal to the upside
At the moment however, sell-side volume… pic.twitter.com/MwcSWucg6v
— Rekt Capital (@rektcapital) September 7, 2024
For those of us who like to visualize market trends, the analyst also shared a “Bitcoin cheat sheet,” which maps out Bitcoin’s typical performance following halving years. This tool provides a clear look at how Bitcoin has behaved in similar scenarios, which can be helpful when trying to gauge what might come next.
So while Bitcoin’s recent dip might have you feeling uneasy, remember that we’re still following a familiar script. History doesn’t always repeat itself, but it often rhymes. As we move into the final months of 2024, there’s still a chance for a stronger finish.
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