Bitcoin dipping 3% in the last 24 hours to a current price of $64,476 per coin, does not stop discussion on its future price. Popular on-chain analyst Willy Woo just shared his outlook on Bitcoin’s potential future value. Woo’s analysis gives us a fascinating and yet fairly simple perspective on where Bitcoin could be headed, at the backdrop of today’s economic landscape.
The Math Behind Bitcoin’s Future Value
Willy Woo suggests that the potential value of Bitcoin comes down to some simple math. The total wealth assets worldwide amount to around $500 trillion. If Bitcoin were to capture all of this wealth (which is highly unlikely), each Bitcoin could be worth $24 million based on today’s value, before adjusting for future inflation.
But let’s get realistic. What portion of global wealth is likely to be allocated to Bitcoin? Wealth management typically flows in a conservative manner. Even in its early stages as an asset class, major financial players like Fidelity suggest a 1-3% allocation to Bitcoin. BlackRock has even mentioned figures as high as 85% in some cases, according to Woo.
Realistic Price Targets
If we take a modest 3% allocation of global wealth to Bitcoin, Woo estimates a lower bound valuation of $700,000 per Bitcoin. Here’s the price target range he proposes:
- Lower bound: $700,000
- Maximum bound: $24 million
A lower bound of $700,000 might seem high today, but in the entirety of things, it is not too far sought. We must simply not forget that we are still only in the early stages of global Bitcoin adoption.
When Will This Happen?
So, when can we expect to see these valuations? Woo points to the adoption S-curve, shown above, a well-known phenomenon in market adoption. The early majority starts at 16% adoption, while the late majority kicks in at 50%. According to Woo, wealth management adoption is somewhere in this range. As Bitcoin adoption increases globally, reaching these adoption milestones will significantly influence its price.
Beyond the Fiat Mindset
Once Bitcoin’s market cap exceeds all the fiat money in the world, focusing on its ultimate price in fiat terms becomes less relevant. At that point, investors will look for assets that can outperform Bitcoin. Companies storing their profits in Bitcoin, like MicroStrategy under former CEO and founder, Michael Saylor, could become prime investment targets.
More Optimistic Views
Woo isn’t the only one optimistic about Bitcoin’s future. PlanB, the creator of the Stock-to-Flow model (S2F), predicts Bitcoin could hit $140,000 by the end of this year and average around $500,000 in the next five years, though he acknowledges the price will be volatile.
Michael Saylor has even more ambitious scenarios for the Bitcoin price by 2045:
- Bearish scenario: $3 million per Bitcoin
- Base scenario: $13 million per Bitcoin
- Bullish scenario: $49 million per Bitcoin
In the bullish scenario, Bitcoin would then capture 22% of global wealth assets, versus 2% in the bearish case, and 7% at base assumptions.
While these predictions might seem far-fetched today, they highlight the incredible potential many see in Bitcoin as it continues to gain traction. As always, stay informed and keep an eye on these developments to make the best decisions for your crypto investments.
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