If somehow you haven’t been following the news lately, or you’ve stayed off social media, you may not know that Tuesday, November 5, is Election Day in the U.S. Americans will be voting for their next president, choosing between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. But why does this matter for Bitcoin? According to analysts at Standard Chartered, Election Day could be when Bitcoin reaches a new all-time high.
Could Bitcoin Break Records on Election Day?
Geoff Kendrick, head of Digital Assets Research at Standard Chartered, thinks it could. He predicts that Bitcoin could hit €67,405 ($73,000) on Election Day, which would match the all-time high it reached earlier this year. His forecast is based on trading volume and data from the Bitcoin derivatives market. Kendrick uses popular price points, called “strike levels,” to predict how the price might move after the election.
He believes Bitcoin could rise to about $73,000 by Election Day. And if Trump wins, Kendrick expects the price to jump by 4% almost immediately, with a potential 10% increase in the days that follow.
“Our base case is that Bitcoin rises to around USD 73,000 by Election Day, catching up to betting-market probabilities of a Trump win; this is slightly below the c.USD 73,800 all-time high recorded in March,” Kendrick states.
What Happens if Donald Trump Wins?
It’s not just about the president on November 5. Americans will also be voting for new members of Congress. Congress, made up of the Senate and the House of Representatives, plays a huge role in how the country is governed. While the president carries out policy, they still need Congress to pass laws and support their agenda.
If either the Democrats or Republicans win both the presidency and a majority in Congress, they’ll have a much easier time pushing through their plans. In the U.S., they call this a “sweep” since one party will have full control.
What does that mean for Bitcoin? Kendrick believes that if Trump and the Republicans win both the presidency and Congress, Bitcoin could soar to $125,000 by the end of 2024. If Kamala Harris wins, he predicts Bitcoin might drop a bit at first, but it could still hit $75,000 by the end of the year.
Bitcoin’s Momentum Is Building
Right now, Bitcoin is hovering around the $68,000 mark after dipping to $65,000 earlier this week. This recent rise is linked to better-than-expected U.S. unemployment data. For the second week in a row, unemployment claims came in lower than expected, which has boosted the chances of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates on November 7. According to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, the odds of a rate cut have now climbed to 92.9%.
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