PlanB, a well-known Bitcoin analyst, and creator of the Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model recently shared his insights on the Bitcoin market in a YouTube video. He presented several charts to support his belief that we are still in a bull market. PlanB focuses on key metrics such as stock-to-flow, market cycles, technical indicators, and on-chain data to make his case. Let’s explore his analysis.
Stock-to-Flow Model
PlanB kicks off his analysis with the stock-to-flow model, which is central to his Bitcoin valuation approach. Historically, Bitcoin’s price tends to rise significantly after each halving event, which cuts the rate at which new Bitcoins are created. According to the S2F model, we’re now in a phase where the price should start moving up. PlanB explains, “When blue turns to red, that’s when you see the jump in price.” This means that in the post-halving period we’re currently in, we can expect similar upward movement.
Market Cycles
Next, PlanB uses the market cycles chart to pinpoint where we are in the Bitcoin market cycle. Right now, Bitcoin is in the early stages of a bull market. He says, “We are in the bull market at present, and it’s at the start of a bull market because we haven’t seen any movement yet.” This suggests that there’s still plenty of room for prices to rise.
Technical Indicators
PlanB also looks at traditional technical analysis tools like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the 200-week moving average. The RSI is a measure of how fast and how much Bitcoin’s price has changed recently. Right now, it’s at 66, which is a bullish sign. PlanB says, “RSI will increase from here to above 80, possibly 90 again,” indicating more price gains like in previous bull markets.
The 200-week moving average is the average price of Bitcoin over the last four years, and it always trends upwards. This average acts as a strong support line, and currently, Bitcoin is well above it. This shows that we are in a healthy uptrend.
On-Chain Data
On-chain metrics like realized price and realized return also give bullish signals. The realized price considers the price at which each Bitcoin last moved and acts as a support line during bull markets. PlanB mentions, “We are now at the beginning of a bull market,” with realized prices suggesting that Bitcoin is set for more gains. Moreover, a high percentage of Bitcoin holders are currently in profit, which usually boosts market sentiment.
PlanB’s thorough analysis across multiple models and indicators leads him to believe that Bitcoin remains in a bull market. By examining Bitcoin’s historical performance post-halving, market cycle positioning, and strong technical and on-chain data, he argues that the current period is perfect for price increases. He sums it up by saying, “We just started this greed phase, this bull market phase,” pointing to exciting times ahead for Bitcoin investors. Just last week, the analyst predicted a price of around $140,000 within a few months, based on the S2F model.
Watch the entire video below:
A detailed description of PlanB’s models can be found on his Medium page.
For more information, you can find PlanB on X @100trillionUSD. His YouTube channel is called @planb_bitcoin.