Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, has a bold prediction for Bitcoin’s future: a massive money-printing spree in the U.S. could send Bitcoin’s value soaring to seven figures. In his latest essay, Hayes lays out a scenario where the incoming Trump administration might launch a substantial quantitative easing (QE) campaign. This, he suggests, would involve printing trillions of dollars to fund an “America First Plan,” aimed at bringing back critical industries like shipbuilding, semiconductor manufacturing, and auto production. According to Hayes, this influx of cash would weaken the U.S. dollar, making Bitcoin an increasingly attractive safe haven for investors.
Hayes argues that such a campaign would require expanding the money supply significantly to support banks in offering low-cost loans to companies reshoring their production. But as Hayes points out, this also spells dollar debasement, something that has historically driven investors toward Bitcoin. “All that is to say,” Hayes explains, “it is going to be a gargantuan task to re-align supply chains to America, and if it must be done for political expediency, it will be f***ing expensive. I’m talking about high single-digit to low double-digit trillions of dollars of cheap bank financing that must be provided.”
“This is how Bitcoin goes to $1 million.”
He compares this to a similar effort the U.S. undertook to reduce the debt-to-GDP ratio, which required $4 trillion in printed funds. Hayes estimates that restoring previous debt levels could mean up to $10.5 trillion in new credit. For Bitcoin, this could create what he describes as a perfect storm: a shrinking supply of Bitcoin on the market paired with an unprecedented amount of fiat money chasing stable assets. “This is how Bitcoin goes to $1 million,” Hayes states, “because prices are set on the margin. As the freely traded supply of Bitcoin dwindles, the most fiat money in history will be chasing a safe haven from not just Americans but Chinese, Japanese, and Western Europeans.”
In a recent interview with CryptoBanter on YouTube, Hayes emphasized this view, suggesting that the crypto market’s current landscape presents a “massive trade” opportunity. He believes Bitcoin’s bull market actually began in March 2023, when the Federal Reserve printed $4 trillion to support the banking sector during a crisis, quietly injecting liquidity that led to a Bitcoin rise from $20,000 to $74,000. “Every bull market feels good at first, then overheats, and then we drop back down. We started the bull market. We began in March 2023, when the U.S. central bank secretly printed $4 trillion,” Hayes explains, describing this initial rise as the beginning of what he sees as a longer journey.
“Everyone is printing money, and America is going to try to print the most of all.”
Now, Hayes points out, more stimulus could be on the horizon as U.S. leaders call for increased spending to reduce dependency on international supply chains, particularly from China. This isn’t just a U.S. trend either. “China is printing money, Europe is printing money, and Japan is printing money,” Hayes says. “Everyone is printing money, and America is going to try to print the most of all.”
Hayes believes that with all of this fiat money flooding the global economy, Bitcoin stands out as a stable, inflation-resistant asset. For him, the message is simple: “Get long, and stay long.” In his view, as the value of fiat currencies diminishes, Bitcoin will likely become an even more attractive choice for investors seeking protection against inflation.
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