As we move through the final quarter of the year, anticipation is strong to find out what’s in store for Bitcoin. Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan recently shared his thoughts, outlining three key factors that could push Bitcoin to $80,000 before the year is out. Bitwise had predicted earlier that Bitcoin would trade above this level in 2024, and Hougan now explains how this could still happen.
In a note to investors, Hougan lays out three specific conditions that need to line up for Bitcoin to make such a move. Let’s see what they are and what’s required for Bitcoin to reach his year-end target.
1. Election Outcomes That Favor Crypto
Hougan’s first condition is tied to the results of the upcoming U.S. election. He believes that Bitcoin’s growth hinges on an election outcome that avoids a full Democratic sweep. According to Hougan, while a Republican win could be more favorable for the crypto industry, it’s not necessarily about which party is in power. What matters most is that politicians don’t impose new obstacles on Bitcoin.
Hougan explains, “To thrive, bitcoin doesn’t need politicians. It just needs them to get out of the way.” He adds that as long as Democrats don’t control both houses of Congress and the White House, they’ll likely take a neutral approach to the industry, which could allow Bitcoin to flourish.
2. More Rate Cuts From the Federal Reserve
The second factor Hougan highlights is related to the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policies. After the Fed’s rate cut in September, markets are hoping for more. Hougan points out that the market is expecting another 50 basis points in rate cuts before the year’s end. If the Fed delivers on these expectations, it could fuel a Bitcoin rally.
“If it gets both, I suspect we will get our Q4 rally,” says Hougan. However, he warns that if the Fed doesn’t deliver, disappointment could weigh on the market, which might delay any upward momentum.
3. No Major Negative Surprises
Lastly, Hougan stresses that Bitcoin’s path to $80,000 could be derailed by unexpected events. Crypto has a history of sudden shocks, from major hacks to large amounts of locked coins hitting the market. Hougan mentions that over the past few quarters, issues like Mt. Gox’s released coins and Bitcoin from government seizures have kept prices from rising.
“If we can make it through the end of the year without similar shocks, I’d expect new all-time highs and beyond,” he says. Basically, as long as no unforeseen problems arise, Bitcoin has a better shot at hitting that $80,000 target.
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