PlanB, a Bitcoin analyst with a large following, has shared a bold prediction for Bitcoin’s price. In his latest video, he told his 188,000 YouTube subscribers that Bitcoin could be gearing up for a massive price jump. Using his stock-to-flow (S2F) model, he suggests that Bitcoin could rise to somewhere between $250,000 and $1 million during this bull market.
What’s the Stock-to-Flow Model?
The stock-to-flow model is based on a simple idea: the scarcer something is, the more valuable it becomes. This concept works for items like gold and silver and is now being applied to Bitcoin. Bitcoin’s scarcity comes from halvings, which happen roughly every four years. During a halving, the reward miners receive for validating Bitcoin transactions is cut in half. Since fewer new bitcoins enter the market, prices often increase as supply tightens.
PlanB’s model has historically shown strong trends after Bitcoin halvings. With 2024 being a halving year, many are watching closely to see if his predictions play out.
Can Bitcoin Really Hit $250,000?
While PlanB’s predictions sound exciting, it’s important to approach them with a level head. Back in 2021, many believed his model when it pointed to Bitcoin reaching $100,000. That didn’t happen. Even now, Bitcoin has yet to break that milestone in this bull run.
The takeaway here is to use these predictions as a guide for trends rather than exact numbers. PlanB himself acknowledges that his model isn’t perfect. For example, after the 2020 halving, his model predicted a price of $50,000, but the average turned out to be $34,000. He explains that the numbers aren’t the focus—it’s the larger trend that matters. By factoring in some margin, he predicts a range of $250,000 to $1 million over the next four years.
So while PlanB predicts a lower bound of $250,000, this doesn’t necessarily have to happen this December. Nevertheless, he has previously predicted a price of roughly $140,000, which currently seems far away. However, once Bitcoin breaks the magical $100,000 barrier, things could start to move upwards exponentially in a short time.
Why Do Other Analysts Disagree?
Many analysts expect Bitcoin to peak at a much lower range, closer to $200,000 or $300,000. PlanB’s forecast stands out for being much higher, but it’s worth remembering that no one can predict the future of Bitcoin with complete accuracy.
Taking Care
Even if PlanB’s model has been accurate in identifying broad market trends, the path to higher prices isn’t usually smooth. Markets take time to adjust, and price movements often include plenty of ups and downs. While his predictions are exciting to consider, it’s always a good idea to stay informed and make decisions based on your own research.
At time of writing, Bitcoin has made 2.5% gains in the last 24 hour, trading at $98,200 according to CoinMarketCap data, just a few percent shy of the magical $100,000 milestone.
You can watch the entire video with PlanB’s analysis here:
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