Bitcoin just closed a month above $100,000 for the first time, reaching $102,000. Some might have expected an even higher price given factors like ETF inflows, MicroStrategy’s accumulation, and political developments, but history suggests patience is key. Once Bitcoin sets a new all-time high, it often continues climbing in the months that follow.
This analysis comes from PlanB, the pseudonymous creator of the stock-to-flow (S2F) model. He has been tracking Bitcoin’s price trends for years and has made several predictions based on historical patterns. In previous cycles, PlanB projected that Bitcoin would follow a similar path of clustered all-time highs, where once it breaks a record, more tend to follow in quick succession. His past estimates have often been close to reality, such as his well-known $55,000 target for Bitcoin in early 2021, which played out almost exactly as he projected.
Bitcoin January closing price: $102,412 .. NEW monthly close ATH and first monthly close above $100k!!https://t.co/0rexm4cPHR pic.twitter.com/7uI9IMw0tL
— PlanB (@100trillionUSD) February 1, 2025
What is the Stock-to-Flow Model?
The stock-to-flow (S2F) model measures Bitcoin’s scarcity by comparing its existing supply (stock) to the number of new coins being created (flow). A higher stock-to-flow ratio means that fewer new Bitcoins are entering circulation compared to the total supply, making it more scarce. This model suggests that Bitcoin’s price does not increase in a smooth, gradual way but instead jumps in phases. Based on this pattern, Bitcoin has historically gained most of its value in the 6-18 months surrounding a halving event, and the 2024 halving appears to be following that trend.
What RSI Says About Bitcoin’s Momentum
The relative strength index (RSI) is a technical indicator that tracks market momentum. It measures how strong recent price movements are on a scale from 0 to 100. A reading above 70 typically means an asset is overbought (possibly due for a pullback), while a reading below 30 suggests it is oversold (possibly undervalued). Right now, Bitcoin’s RSI is at 76, meaning it is in an uptrend but has not yet reached the peak phase of past bull runs, where it climbed above 80. PlanB expects RSI to hit 80 or higher for at least three to five months in 2025. Historically, when this happens, Bitcoin’s average monthly return has been around 40%.
If Bitcoin follows this pattern again, a 40% increase from $100,000 could push its price to $140,000 in February. If it continues for three months, Bitcoin could reach $270,000, and if it lasts five months, the price could go beyond $500,000.
Where Could Bitcoin Go Next?
Skepticism remains high, as many traders have never experienced these rapid price movements firsthand. A recent poll on X (formerly Twitter) found that three out of four respondents couldn’t imagine a single 40% monthly increase, even though Bitcoin has done it before. PlanB believes history will repeat itself, and Bitcoin could see these kinds of price jumps again.
Other indicators support this outlook. The 200-week moving average, which tracks Bitcoin’s long-term trend, has climbed to $44,000 and is beginning to curve upward, just as it did in past bull markets. The realized price, which reflects the average price at which Bitcoin holders bought their coins, has risen to $74,000. If Bitcoin’s price keeps increasing, this number could rise even faster.
PlanB’s stock-to-flow model estimates an average Bitcoin price of around $500,000 for this halving cycle (2024-2028), though actual prices will fluctuate. Other models, such as the power law model, predict lower peaks, estimating a potential $200,000 top before a drop back under $100,000. However, PlanB believes Bitcoin is more likely to stay above $250,000 once it reaches that level, aligning with stock-to-flow projections.
While no model is perfect, PlanB emphasizes that Bitcoin follows historical trends, and if past patterns hold, Bitcoin could be set for major price increases in the coming months.
At time of writing Bitcoin is trading at $101,200 according to CoinMarketCap data.
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