Being a Bitcoiner doesn’t go without its bumps, but we may still be in the middle of a bull market. Despite the recent dip to start the week, there are reasons to remain optimistic.
According to Ki Young Ju, head of the blockchain analytics platform CryptoQuant, Bitcoin’s market cap is still growing faster than its realized cap. If you’re wondering what that means, think of the realized cap as a way to track the price at which each Bitcoin last moved. It helps us understand how many holders are in profit or at a loss. Ju believes this growth pattern signals we’re in a bull phase, just like in past cycles.
Hey bears, I'm sorry, but #Bitcoin is still in the middle of the bull cycle. https://t.co/QkaZx7wmAt pic.twitter.com/8lkIiRn1W7
— Ki Young Ju (@ki_young_ju) September 30, 2024
Based on historical trends, this bull cycle could last until around April 2025 if things go similarly to previous years. Ju even shared this insight with his 346,000 followers on X, saying, “Hey bears, I’m sorry, but Bitcoin is still in the middle of the bull cycle. When the market cap grows faster than the realized cap, it may signal a bull market; the reverse could indicate a bear market.” Essentially, we’re seeing more exchange trading in bullish times, while over-the-counter (OTC) activity picks up in bear markets.
Bitcoin Price Drop and Interest Rate News
Now, let’s talk about what happened at the start of this week. Despite the overall optimism, Bitcoin surprised the market by starting the week in the red. We also got new hints from the U.S. central bank about future interest rate cuts, but even that wasn’t enough to stop the downward trend.
On September 30th, Bitcoin fell 4% to a low of just above $63,000. Right now, we are looking to retake the $64,000 level and are trading at $63,933, but it’s not quite enough to declare that the bulls are back in control. Still, despite the dip, the quarter wrapped up on a positive note, showing that there’s still some strength left in the market.
Another interesting point is the shift in expectations for a new rate cut by the U.S. central bank, which have dropped at the moment. This might have something to do with the comments made by Jerome Powell, chairman of the U.S. central bank, on Monday in his speech at the National Association for Business Economics in Nashville. Powell indicated that any upcoming rate cuts wouldn’t be as aggressive as the previous ones, specifically mentioning the 0.50% cut we recently saw.
Nevertheless, Powell suggested that if the economy behaves as expected, we could see two more rate cuts of 0.25% in 2024. That’s something to keep an eye on, as interest rates often influence market sentiment for assets like Bitcoin.
Only Green Until 2025?
As we have entered October, it is worth to mention that Bitcoin has experienced its best September ever. Interestingly, after a positive September, the next three months until the end of the year have always seen additional gains, so if history repeats, we are looking for some nice action to build up towards the New Year!
#Bitcoin had the best September in its entire history pic.twitter.com/fhMyHrrjXL
— Quinten | 048.eth (@QuintenFrancois) October 1, 2024
So, while Bitcoin’s price dipped this week, there are still reasons to believe we’re in a bull market. Let’s see how things play out and whether history continues to repeat itself in the crypto world.
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