Bitcoin is still trading far below its peak from October, even with the price near $71,000. Even so, Bernstein thinks the worst part of the drop may already be over. In a new report, the asset manager says Bitcoin may have already hit a bottom and could still push to fresh highs later this year.
- Good to Know
- Bernstein says the recent drop looks more like a reset in sentiment than a deeper problem.
- The firm points to Bitcoin ETF inflows and company buying as two main reasons for its upbeat view.
- Not everyone agrees, and many traders still think Bitcoin could fall much lower first.
Why Bernstein Still Likes Bitcoin
Bernstein told clients that Bitcoin may already be done with its deepest pullback. According to the report, analysts at the firm think BTC could rise to $150,000 later this year. From the current price, that would mean a very large jump.
In plain English, Bernstein is saying the market may have gone through a cooling-off phase rather than the start of a new long slide. A correction is just a price drop after a strong run. Sometimes it means real weakness. Other times it means traders got too excited, prices moved too fast, and the market needed to calm down.
That is how Bernstein sees the latest move. The analysts wrote that the correction does not point to a broken Bitcoin story. Instead, they view it as a temporary reset in market mood.
ETF Money And Big Company Buying Matter
A big part of the case comes from Bitcoin ETFs. An ETF is a fund that trades on the stock market and holds Bitcoin for investors. When money keeps flowing into those funds, demand for Bitcoin can stay strong even during shaky periods.
Bernstein also pointed to growing interest from companies that hold Bitcoin on their balance sheet. The best-known example is Strategy. The company has kept buying aggressively. Last week alone, it disclosed a $1.57 billion purchase, followed soon after by another $76.6 million buy.
Even more eye-catching, Strategy said in the same filing that it plans to raise as much as $42 billion to buy even more Bitcoin. Right now, the company holds 762,099 BTC worth more than $54 billion.
There is one catch, though. Strategy is still underwater on paper for now. According to BitcoinTreasuries data, the company paid an average of around $75,700 per Bitcoin. So with BTC near $71,000, the position is still below cost.
Why Some Traders Are Still Doubtful
Bernstein thinks momentum could return quickly if Bitcoin breaks above $75,000 in a convincing way. In that case, analysts see room for a move toward $85,000 to $90,000.
Still, the market is far from fully sold on that idea. On Polymarket, traders are giving only about a 10% chance that Bitcoin reaches $150,000 this year. At the same time, many are betting on more downside first. The same market puts the odds of a drop toward $55,000 at roughly 70%.
So you can see the split clearly. One side says the bottom is already in. The other side says we may still have one more washout before a real recovery starts.
What History Says About The Risk
Some traders also see echoes of 2022 in the current chart. Back then, Bitcoin did not find a final bottom in one clean move. Instead, the market went through several drops with short recovery rallies in between.
If that pattern plays out again, Bitcoin could still slip below $60,000 before a stronger rebound begins. There could even be one last capitulation phase. Capitulation is when investors give up, sell in panic, and push the price down fast.